Security and geopolitical crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina

 

The celebration of 9 January as the “Day of Republika Srpska”, despite rulings by the Constitutional Court of BiH declaring the holiday unconstitutional, represents an open violation of the constitutional order and serves as a tool of political mobilisation. The presence of uniformed forces, paramilitary symbols and foreign actors suggests that the event functions as a security and political spectacle rather than a cultural observance, intentionally raising tensions and provoking confrontation.

Secessionist rhetoric can no longer be dismissed as a bluff; it is a real threat to stability, deepening social divisions, fuelling extremism and testing the limits of the international community’s tolerance. The promotion of secession ignores historical experience and obligations stemming from the Dayton Agreement, while the policies pursued by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) are leading to international isolation, growing security risks, increased Russian influence and the potential criminalisation of political and financial flows.

This course constitutes a strategically dangerous choice that keeps Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region in a state of permanent instability.


Security dimension: persistent Russian influence and paramilitary elements in Republika Srpska


The cooperation of the Republika Srpska authorities with Russian security structures—including visits by police officials from Moscow and the presence of groups such as the Night Wolves—poses a serious challenge to the security of BiH and the broader region.

As part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy, the Western Balkans is utilised as a platform for indirect pressure on the West, with local political actors functioning as intermediaries for Moscow’s influence. BiH’s complex constitutional architecture and recurring political crises make it a favourable environment for such activities, while Russia exploits crises to block Euro-Atlantic integration, maintain low-intensity instability and demonstrate its leverage without direct military escalation.

The policies pursued by Milorad Dodik, in coordination with Dragan Čović (HDZBiH), fit into this pattern—whether strategically aligned with Moscow or driven by opportunism—at the expense of long-term security, stability and the socio-economic standing of citizens.

The presence of Russian security and paramilitary structures, classified in several European countries as extremist and pro-Kremlin, results in:
  • the normalisation of paramilitary narratives in the civilian sphere and the implicit message that Republika Srpska operates outside NATO and EU frameworks;
  • political pressure, disinformation and security-related provocations;
  • the instrumentalisation of BiH to obstruct Euro-Atlantic integration, with local actors serving as Moscow’s “proxy” instruments, accompanied by the informal influence of the Russian ambassador across all levels of governance.
Milorad Dodik’s approach thus amounts to a conscious and coordinated channelling of Russian influence, with serious implications for the stability of BiH, the wider region and European security as a whole.
 

Dodik’s relations with the United States: an attempt at double-dealing in favour of the Russian Federation


Milorad Dodik’s approach combines limited communication with the US administration with parallel efforts to undermine the Dayton Agreement, signalling secessionist intentions and deepening ties with Russia and actors under international sanctions.

US foreign policy is based on institutional continuity rather than personal arrangements. Any feigned cooperation that weakens state institutions may trigger the reimposition or expansion of sanctions, secondary sanctions against affiliated individuals—including US citizens—and a loss of credibility with key Western partners.

Such double-dealing erodes internal stability in BiH, compromises political and economic dialogue with international actors and creates space for an expansion of Russian influence to the detriment of the United States.
 

New US legislation on the Western Balkans: sanctions and institutional accountability


The recently adopted Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act[2] reinforces accountability for individuals and entities that undermine peace, stability and the implementation of international agreements, with particular emphasis on the Dayton Peace Agreement.

Unlike previous executive measures, the Act:
  • institutionalises sanctions and broadens the circle of those held accountable, including US nationals;
  • strengthens coordination between OFAC, the State Department and Congress;
  • reduces the scope for postponing or circumventing sanctions in the absence of verifiable changes in behaviour.
Sanctions may be imposed on those who:
  • undermine the Dayton Agreement;
  • threaten secession or the dismantling of BiH’s constitutional order;
  • engage in large-scale political and financial corruption;
  • cooperate with Russia or other actors to pursue destabilisation;
  • assist in evading existing sanctions.
Particular attention is given to US citizens acting as lobbyists, advisers or intermediaries, especially where they receive non-transparent funding to undermine international obligations.

The Act establishes a clear legal and institutional framework for accountability, substantially narrowing the scope for double-dealing in the region.
 

Blagojevich and Primorac: US citizens at risk of sanctions


Pursuant to the new US law on the Western Balkans, the involvement of US citizens in activities that undermine the Dayton Agreement, promote secession or cooperate with Russia may trigger criminal investigations, tax audits and sanctions. US citizenship no longer provides protection for actions that destabilise the region.

Rod Blagojevich, a former governor of the state of Illinois who was convicted on criminal charges, together with Max Primorac of the Heritage Foundation, who operates as a Croatian lobbyist, face serious legal and reputational risks. Their public challenges to the legitimacy of the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, advocacy for the establishment of a third entity through the revival of the so-called “Croatian Republic of Herceg-Bosna”, as well as support for the marking of the unconstitutional 9 January, may be interpreted as open endorsement of secessionist narratives and as subversive conduct aimed at obstructing the Dayton Peace Agreement and eroding the constitutional and legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Potential repercussions include federal legal and tax investigations, sanctions for unreported foreign lobbying, and measures targeting involvement in the destabilisation of the region. Even advisory engagement, if paid and non-transparent, falls under strict US legal requirements. Their links with Dodik and other sanctioned actors further increase legal and reputational risks.

The evaluation of their activities may extend to the organisations and media outlets they work with, financial channels, US political figures associated with them, as well as local actors in BiH who rely on their “international support”. The engagement of US citizens on behalf of destabilising elements carries specific legal, financial and reputational consequences for both individuals and their networks.
 

The presence of Russian police structures in Republika Srpska: a hybrid strategy and a challenge to BiH’s sovereignty


Expert reports confirm that representatives of the Russian police from Moscow have operated in Republika Srpska, underscoring the entity’s close ties with Russia while simultaneously posing a serious threat to BiH’s sovereignty and the integrity of its defence and security system.

The presence of foreign personnel, including individuals subject to international sanctions, goes beyond technical cooperation and conveys a clear political message, raising concerns over the emergence of parallel security arrangements outside the constitutional framework, particularly in times of crisis.

Unlike NATO or EUFOR missions, the deployment of Russian security and intelligence units lacks an internationally recognised mandate, making it a destabilising factor with far-reaching implications: weakening confidence in state institutions, intensifying geopolitical competition between the West and Russia, and setting a precedent for informal interference in domestic security affairs.

The arrival of Russian representatives confirms the application of a hybrid strategy, further complicating the political and security crisis in BiH and potentially paving the way for the establishment of Russian military bases in Republika Srpska, with active support from Milorad Dodik and through his connections to the Russian security and intelligence establishment.
 
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EU, US and NATO reactions: a coordinated strategy to safeguard stability in BiH

Europe, the United States and NATO are responding to security challenges in Bosnia and Herzegovina through a combination of diplomatic, legal and operational measures, with the aim of upholding the Dayton constitutional and legal framework and curbing Russian influence in the region.

The EU pursues this approach through public condemnations, ongoing monitoring of developments, the option of targeted sanctions against individuals, the use of conditionality in EU funding and the reinforcement of the EUFOR mandate, demonstrating long-term commitment to addressing security risks.

The United States has adopted a more agile response, making use of Western Balkans legislation, OFAC tools and national security mechanisms. These measures include legal and financial scrutiny, “quiet diplomacy”, evidence-gathering for sanctions, the application of secondary sanctions and action against US citizens who undermine stability. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio[3] has strongly condemned the actions of Milorad Dodik and the authorities of Republika Srpska, stressing that their activities threaten the institutions, security and stability of BiH, and urging political leaders to pursue constructive dialogue while respecting the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Rubio[4] has also expressed support for the continued use of sanctions and other instruments to counter destabilising influences, including those originating from Russia.

Although BiH is not a NATO member, the Alliance maintains a presence in the country and acts strategically to safeguard peace in the region, enhance cooperation with the Armed Forces of BiH, support EUFOR and deter secessionist and destabilising forces. The presence of Russian police and paramilitary structures is perceived as a hybrid security challenge.

While the tools available to the EU, the United States and NATO differ, their shared objective remains clear: preserving the integrity, sovereignty and stability of BiH. At the same time, the actions of the Republika Srpska authorities are intensifying international pressure, the likelihood of sanctions and the involvement of global actors.

IFIMES - Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels/Banja Luka

Footnotes:

[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en 

[2] Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/index.php/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5274/text?

[3] "I am concerned about the security situation", Rubio on the situation in Bosnia: We do not want the disintegration of the country or a new conflict!. Available at: https://www.balkanweb.com/en/I-am-concerned-about-the-security-situation--Rubio--about-the-situation-in-Bosnia--we-do-not-want-the-disintegration-of-the-country-or-a-new-conflict./#gsc.tab=0

[4] The nomination of Hon. Marco Rubio to be U.S. Secretary of State. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/event/119th-congress/senate-event/LC73849/text?


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
Ubicazione: Lubiana, Slovenia

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