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Syria: a larger Lebanon or a signal for major geopolitical changes in 2025?

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        "When politicians play with the pencil on the map, the drums of war begin to beat." — Otto von Bismarck I. Brief History S yria, under French mandate after World War I, gained independence in 1945, subsequently experiencing a highly turbulent political and social period marked by numerous military coups until 1970, when General Hafez Al-Assad seized power through a coup. A referendum in the spring of 1971 legitimized his leadership, establishing an autocratic rule based on the military and secret services, widely supported by his Alawite coreligionists (a minority), who held the most important positions in the power structures. The natural passing of Hafez Al-Assad in 2000, one of the longest-serving heads of state in the Middle East, was linked by many analysts to the beginning of Syria’s decline in regional influence. His successor, his son Bashar, assumed power instead of his elder brother Basel, who had been groomed for leadership but died in a t...

Tehran’s regional strategic policy post October 7 attack

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  W hile addressing the Islamic governments on October 3 2023, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned leaders against normalising their relations with Israel, equating all initiatives to betting on a losing horse. Meagre days after his address to the Islamic governments, Hamas fighters infiltrated Israeli territories, culminating in an ongoing war in Gaza. The war not only reversed normalisation processes between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but shifted even the staunchest sympathiser (public sympathy poured for Israelis in the first few weeks) towards Palestinians (and the Islamic world) as the battle in Gaza enraged. Although Tehran denied its role in orchestrating the October 7 attack, experts argued on Tehran being deliberately kept in the dark on the nature/specificity or intensity of the attack despite Tehran’s strategic control over Hamas. That said, political leadership in Tehran continue to take the credit post-October 7, threatening Israel in roughly all politica...