Post

Visualizzazione dei post con l'etichetta Syria

Syria: a larger Lebanon or a signal for major geopolitical changes in 2025?

Immagine
        "When politicians play with the pencil on the map, the drums of war begin to beat." — Otto von Bismarck I. Brief History S yria, under French mandate after World War I, gained independence in 1945, subsequently experiencing a highly turbulent political and social period marked by numerous military coups until 1970, when General Hafez Al-Assad seized power through a coup. A referendum in the spring of 1971 legitimized his leadership, establishing an autocratic rule based on the military and secret services, widely supported by his Alawite coreligionists (a minority), who held the most important positions in the power structures. The natural passing of Hafez Al-Assad in 2000, one of the longest-serving heads of state in the Middle East, was linked by many analysts to the beginning of Syria’s decline in regional influence. His successor, his son Bashar, assumed power instead of his elder brother Basel, who had been groomed for leadership but died in a t...

The fall of the Syrian regime and regional implications

Immagine
  W hile the world’s eyes and attention were focused on the new Trump administration , the consequences of its policies after January 21 in Ukraine , and the raging fires of the Middle East , a new fire flared up and died down in the blink of an eye in Syria . A pending issue took suddenly an unexpected turn. On December 8, 2024, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime marked a historic and decisive turning point in the Syrian civil war, after nearly 14 years of conflict. This sudden defeat, despite the regime’s growing difficulties, was accelerated by the rapid and coordinated advance of rebel groups, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which launched a determined offensive from Idlib province, in the northwest of the country. The offensive, which began on November 27, 2024, benefited from the strategic and military support of Turkey , a regional power directly involved in the Syrian dynamic for several years.   A. A POST-ASSAD SYRIA The offensive enabled the rebels...