Presidential elections in Belarus 2025: a new phase in the country's socio-political and economic development
Amid turbulent events that have gripped the world, including two wars in Europe and the Middle East, Belarus is gearing up for its presidential elections on 26 January 2025. This event marks a critical turning point in the political life of Belarus, which, despite all challenges, has maintained security and stability while achieving an impressive level of economic growth.
A total of 6,913,965 Belarusian citizens are eligible to vote in what can be viewed as a popular referendum on the direction the country will take in the coming period. These elections are expected to usher in a new phase of socio-political and economic development in Belarusian history, defined by stability and economic progress in the face of Western sanctions and the war in neighbouring Ukraine. Belarusians hope that Donald Trump’s election will signal the start of strategic dialogue with the West and bring about a relaxation of imposed sanctions. Analysts estimate that the incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko, will win between 80% and 85% of the vote.
A total of 6,913,965 Belarusian citizens are eligible to vote in what can be viewed as a popular referendum on the direction the country will take in the coming period. These elections are expected to usher in a new phase of socio-political and economic development in Belarusian history, defined by stability and economic progress in the face of Western sanctions and the war in neighbouring Ukraine. Belarusians hope that Donald Trump’s election will signal the start of strategic dialogue with the West and bring about a relaxation of imposed sanctions. Analysts estimate that the incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko, will win between 80% and 85% of the vote.
Regarding the candidates’ platforms, Lukashenko highlights continuity, prioritising large-scale projects in infrastructure, industry, and economic development, while pledging sustained economic growth over the next five years. He also reaffirms his commitment to maintaining Belarus’s independent foreign policy, which aims to balance relations between major powers—particularly Russia and the United States—while fostering dialogue with neighbouring countries.
The war in Ukraine presents a strategic challenge for Lukashenko. While Belarus remains a close ally of Russia, it continues to face international sanctions, despite its repeated calls for a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Opposition candidates could leverage these challenges to criticise Lukashenko, portraying him as the architect of Belarus’s growing isolation and the economic hardships likely to ensue. They might point to the crises in neighbouring countries to underscore the “negative repercussions” of Lukashenko’s strategy of balancing relations between Russia and the West. On the other hand, Lukashenko could frame these crises within a broader security narrative, presenting himself as a guardian of peace and a defender against external threats—a role he has upheld since his first term in 1994, consistently prioritising Belarus’s sovereignty. The proximity of the Ukrainian conflict provides him with compelling arguments to position himself as the guarantor of national security and stability, a message that is likely to resonate with a significant portion of voters concerned about their country’s stability and prosperity.
Lukashenko's appeal to the Belarusian opposition in the West
Lukashenko has invited the Belarusian opposition in the West to return to the country and take part in the upcoming elections. “Look at their policy with the slogan ‘vote against everyone,’ yet they haven’t even listened to what the candidates have to say. But no, they insist on voting against everyone. That’s their prerogative and their right to express it. They need to come here and take part in the elections. We have no harassment, no political prisoners, and I, as president, will not put pressure on anyone. I’ve been elected, so let’s get to work,” Lukashenko stated.
As the presidential elections approach, Belarus finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. The country's economic and political stability, social cohesion, and international relations are critical in determining its future. Lukashenko's ability to manage these complex issues remains the key factor driving voter support for his re-election. The prevailing sentiment among voters is that the current direction and positioning of the state is the correct one. Citizens are particularly eager to see an end to the war in Ukraine and for Belarus to maintain its status as an oasis of peace and stability.
As the presidential elections approach, Belarus finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. The country's economic and political stability, social cohesion, and international relations are critical in determining its future. Lukashenko's ability to manage these complex issues remains the key factor driving voter support for his re-election. The prevailing sentiment among voters is that the current direction and positioning of the state is the correct one. Citizens are particularly eager to see an end to the war in Ukraine and for Belarus to maintain its status as an oasis of peace and stability.
Belarus ranks third on the “Top 15” list of fastest-growing European economies in 2024
European nations have recently encountered notable challenges, including a decline in business activities and the euro's drop to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2022. Adding to the strain, US President Trump’s threat of imposing additional tariffs has created further pressure.
Despite these hurdles, several countries achieved robust economic growth in 2024.
Belarus secured third place on the list[2] of the top 15 European countries by GDP growth for 2024, recording a growth rate of 3.6%, according to data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2024.[3]
"Imposing democracy" is inherently undemocratic
Interestingly, Western countries emphasize the application of democracy in Third World countries, yet fail to acknowledge that liberal systems preceded democratic ones in Western Europe. Democracy in Europe did not emerge overnight; it underwent multiple stages of socio-political evolution before modern democratic systems were established.
The United Kingdom did not fully embrace democracy until 1928, when half of its population (women) were granted the right to vote[4]. Similarly, in the United States, while women gained political rights in 1919, their democracy did not truly evolve until 1964, when political rights were extended to African Americans. As for France, voting rights for men were not granted without discrimination until 1851, and it was not until 1944 that women were given the right to vote[5]. The reality is that democratic processes in the world's oldest democracies remain incomplete and are continuously evolving and improving.
According to The Economist's 2017 rankings[6], of the 167 countries analysed (out of the 193 UN member states), only 19 are predominantly democratic and located in Europe and North America, while 52 are predominantly dictatorial, situated in Africa, Asia, and the Arab world. The remaining 96 countries oscillate between flawed democracies and “soft” dictatorships.
The issue with the West lies in its imposition of the Western democratic model on societies that are culturally distinct and have unique social environments and contexts. The West does not advocate for the gradual introduction of democracy in the way it developed its own. Democracy in the West did not emerge instantaneously but rather unfolded progressively, shaped by various stages of social, historical, cultural, and economic evolution.
The West and the international community must acknowledge alternative democratic models from countries that are not necessarily Western, particularly if these nations enjoy well-being, stability, and prosperity. Successful models should be explored comprehensively, rather than focusing solely on electoral systems.
The international community must embrace models of democracy tailored to the traditions, cultures, and political contexts of individual countries. In the current circumstances, the "imposition of democracy" is itself an undemocratic act.
The United Kingdom did not fully embrace democracy until 1928, when half of its population (women) were granted the right to vote[4]. Similarly, in the United States, while women gained political rights in 1919, their democracy did not truly evolve until 1964, when political rights were extended to African Americans. As for France, voting rights for men were not granted without discrimination until 1851, and it was not until 1944 that women were given the right to vote[5]. The reality is that democratic processes in the world's oldest democracies remain incomplete and are continuously evolving and improving.
According to The Economist's 2017 rankings[6], of the 167 countries analysed (out of the 193 UN member states), only 19 are predominantly democratic and located in Europe and North America, while 52 are predominantly dictatorial, situated in Africa, Asia, and the Arab world. The remaining 96 countries oscillate between flawed democracies and “soft” dictatorships.
The issue with the West lies in its imposition of the Western democratic model on societies that are culturally distinct and have unique social environments and contexts. The West does not advocate for the gradual introduction of democracy in the way it developed its own. Democracy in the West did not emerge instantaneously but rather unfolded progressively, shaped by various stages of social, historical, cultural, and economic evolution.
The West and the international community must acknowledge alternative democratic models from countries that are not necessarily Western, particularly if these nations enjoy well-being, stability, and prosperity. Successful models should be explored comprehensively, rather than focusing solely on electoral systems.
The international community must embrace models of democracy tailored to the traditions, cultures, and political contexts of individual countries. In the current circumstances, the "imposition of democracy" is itself an undemocratic act.
Trump’s policy towards Belarus in the context of countering China’s growing influence
The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States could potentially result in a positive shift in Central and Eastern Europe. Yet, predicting the course of a second Trump administration remains challenging, as even Trump himself seems uncertain about what lies ahead.
It is evident that, unlike his first term, Donald Trump will be surrounded by brilliant politicians, such as Marco Rubio as the new US Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor. These are reasonably predictable politicians, who adopt an open and pragmatic stance towards Russia but not towards China. They have primarily been chosen to implement stricter policies towards Beijing while working to normalise relations with Russia, aiming to pull it away from China’s influence.
Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk will head the new "Department of Government Efficiency" in his second administration. The tech billionaire and visionary, Musk, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal[7]. Musk and Putin have continued their discussions throughout this year, even as Musk has intensified his criticism of US military support for Ukraine and actively engaged in the election campaign of Republican candidate and former US President, Donald Trump.
There is no doubt that Elon Musk, as a visionary and close ally of President Trump, will be keen to tackle some of the chronic issues facing the old continent, which the EU has struggled to resolve swiftly and efficiently. Relations with Russia, and by extension Belarus, are expected to be top priorities for the new administration.
The US is deeply concerned about China’s ambitions in Belarus, particularly the establishment of the China-Belarus Industrial Park "Great Stone" in 2015, a special economic zone created under an intergovernmental agreement between China and Belarus. The park provides convenient access to international highways M1/E30 and M4, international railways, and Minsk International Airport. The "Great Stone" Industrial Park is designed for high-tech industrial and business activities, including research and development, manufacturing and assembly, storage, and logistics operations. The park offers investors tax incentives and a duty-free regime with member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including Russia and Kazakhstan. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the park is China’s largest overseas economic and trade cooperation zone in terms of planned area and level of collaboration. It serves a pivotal role within the Silk Road Economic Belt[8] . Over the long term, the project is expected to attract up to $30 billion in investment. Belarusian authorities estimate that the park will increase the country’s annual export potential to $50 billion.
The "Chinese Digital Silk Road" project in the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will facilitate stronger cooperation between China and these nations in the technological domain. China needs the EAEU to make this digital road a hub of high-tech production and innovation in Eurasia. Conversely, the EAEU member states seek Chinese investments and technologies to advance digitalisation and sustain economic growth. The northern branch of the Digital Silk Road leads to Russia and ends in Belarus. This will be an additional reason for the new US administration to block the road in Belarus before it extends into the EU.
Demonstrating heightened diplomatic interest, the United States requested that Belarus approve an increase in the number of American diplomatic staff at the embassy in Minsk. This was confirmed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on the sidelines of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Russia on 26 December 2024.
In addition to countering the Chinese Digital Silk Road, the new administration aims to block China’s "Polar Silk Road." Trump's proposal to purchase Greenland cannot be dismissed as a political whim but should instead be seen as part of the United States' geopolitical vision dating back to the 19th century. Washington's interest in this Arctic island is linked to preparations for the impending economic cold war between Washington and Beijing.
It is evident that, unlike his first term, Donald Trump will be surrounded by brilliant politicians, such as Marco Rubio as the new US Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor. These are reasonably predictable politicians, who adopt an open and pragmatic stance towards Russia but not towards China. They have primarily been chosen to implement stricter policies towards Beijing while working to normalise relations with Russia, aiming to pull it away from China’s influence.
Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk will head the new "Department of Government Efficiency" in his second administration. The tech billionaire and visionary, Musk, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal[7]. Musk and Putin have continued their discussions throughout this year, even as Musk has intensified his criticism of US military support for Ukraine and actively engaged in the election campaign of Republican candidate and former US President, Donald Trump.
There is no doubt that Elon Musk, as a visionary and close ally of President Trump, will be keen to tackle some of the chronic issues facing the old continent, which the EU has struggled to resolve swiftly and efficiently. Relations with Russia, and by extension Belarus, are expected to be top priorities for the new administration.
The US is deeply concerned about China’s ambitions in Belarus, particularly the establishment of the China-Belarus Industrial Park "Great Stone" in 2015, a special economic zone created under an intergovernmental agreement between China and Belarus. The park provides convenient access to international highways M1/E30 and M4, international railways, and Minsk International Airport. The "Great Stone" Industrial Park is designed for high-tech industrial and business activities, including research and development, manufacturing and assembly, storage, and logistics operations. The park offers investors tax incentives and a duty-free regime with member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including Russia and Kazakhstan. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the park is China’s largest overseas economic and trade cooperation zone in terms of planned area and level of collaboration. It serves a pivotal role within the Silk Road Economic Belt[8] . Over the long term, the project is expected to attract up to $30 billion in investment. Belarusian authorities estimate that the park will increase the country’s annual export potential to $50 billion.
The "Chinese Digital Silk Road" project in the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will facilitate stronger cooperation between China and these nations in the technological domain. China needs the EAEU to make this digital road a hub of high-tech production and innovation in Eurasia. Conversely, the EAEU member states seek Chinese investments and technologies to advance digitalisation and sustain economic growth. The northern branch of the Digital Silk Road leads to Russia and ends in Belarus. This will be an additional reason for the new US administration to block the road in Belarus before it extends into the EU.
Demonstrating heightened diplomatic interest, the United States requested that Belarus approve an increase in the number of American diplomatic staff at the embassy in Minsk. This was confirmed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on the sidelines of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Russia on 26 December 2024.
In addition to countering the Chinese Digital Silk Road, the new administration aims to block China’s "Polar Silk Road." Trump's proposal to purchase Greenland cannot be dismissed as a political whim but should instead be seen as part of the United States' geopolitical vision dating back to the 19th century. Washington's interest in this Arctic island is linked to preparations for the impending economic cold war between Washington and Beijing.
Lukashenko's vision for peace
Analysts anticipate that Trump's return to the White House will open a new phase in the relations between Belarus and the USA.
Belarus is counting on actions from the new US administration regarding Russia and Ukraine, which could help it emerge from diplomatic isolation without significant concessions on its part. Belarus is not at war with Ukraine; it is merely a collateral victim of the West’s conflict with Russia. In fact, Minsk genuinely hopes that Trump will fulfil his promise to end the war in Ukraine and de-escalate US-Russian tensions. Lukashenko has never publicly endorsed Russia’s aims in the so-called “special military operation” and is unlikely to have ever been interested in Russia’s hegemonic ambitions. A potential Ukrainian defeat would negatively impact Belarus’s independence and sovereignty. It would also create conditions for further militarisation of NATO’s eastern flank, increasing risks for Minsk and potentially allowing Moscow to expand its presence in Belarus. Lukashenko’s vision for peace has remained closely aligned with proposals from influential global powers (such as China, Brazil, and Turkey), and two EU and NATO members (Hungary and Slovakia). Trump’s second presidency represents an opportunity and hope not just for Belarus but also for easing global tensions.
Belarus is counting on actions from the new US administration regarding Russia and Ukraine, which could help it emerge from diplomatic isolation without significant concessions on its part. Belarus is not at war with Ukraine; it is merely a collateral victim of the West’s conflict with Russia. In fact, Minsk genuinely hopes that Trump will fulfil his promise to end the war in Ukraine and de-escalate US-Russian tensions. Lukashenko has never publicly endorsed Russia’s aims in the so-called “special military operation” and is unlikely to have ever been interested in Russia’s hegemonic ambitions. A potential Ukrainian defeat would negatively impact Belarus’s independence and sovereignty. It would also create conditions for further militarisation of NATO’s eastern flank, increasing risks for Minsk and potentially allowing Moscow to expand its presence in Belarus. Lukashenko’s vision for peace has remained closely aligned with proposals from influential global powers (such as China, Brazil, and Turkey), and two EU and NATO members (Hungary and Slovakia). Trump’s second presidency represents an opportunity and hope not just for Belarus but also for easing global tensions.
IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies
Footnotes:
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.
[2] The 15 Fastest Growing European Economies in 2024. Available at: www.visualcapitalist.com/
[3] The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Available at: www.imf.org/en/Publications/
[4] The Equal Franchise Act of 1928 granted equal voting rights to women and men. Available at: www.parliament.uk/about/
[5] About: 1851 French constitutional referendum. Available at: https://dbpedia.org/page/1851_
[6] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of democracy. Available at: www.economist.com/media/pdf/
[7] Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin. Available at: www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-
[8] Great Stone Industrial Park is a manufacturing hub providing tariff free entry to the Eurasian market within close proximity of the European Union. Available at: https://en.industrialpark.by/
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.
[2] The 15 Fastest Growing European Economies in 2024. Available at: www.visualcapitalist.com/
[3] The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Available at: www.imf.org/en/Publications/
[4] The Equal Franchise Act of 1928 granted equal voting rights to women and men. Available at: www.parliament.uk/about/
[5] About: 1851 French constitutional referendum. Available at: https://dbpedia.org/page/1851_
[6] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of democracy. Available at: www.economist.com/media/pdf/
[7] Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin. Available at: www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-
[8] Great Stone Industrial Park is a manufacturing hub providing tariff free entry to the Eurasian market within close proximity of the European Union. Available at: https://en.industrialpark.by/
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