The presidential elections in Belarus 2025: the curse and revenge of geography

 


Geography, despite its various definitions, often manifests as a curse in international relations, creating obstacles that hinder the development of certain nations. These challenges stem from the geographical position of a country’s territory or its natural resources and can expose a state to security threats from both external and internal adversaries. In their pursuit of interests, neighbouring countries or global superpowers often adopt dangerous policies, disregarding international norms and the interests of others. The countries in such delicate environments find it extremely difficult to maintain independence, sovereignty, and sustainable development. Contemporary examples of the curse of geography in today’s world include the Turkish-Greek maritime border dispute, the conflict between Turkey and Cyprus over oil and gas exploitation in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Lebanon's position between two warring states, Syria and Israel.

Geography’s curse extends to rivers, where power invariably belongs to the upstream country. A striking example is the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, which continues to raise critical security concerns for Egypt’s national interests. Belarus finds itself wedged between Russia and Ukraine, in the midst of a war that also involves the EU and NATO. Additionally, Belarus provides an indirect link to the strategically important Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The curse of Belarusian geography presents complex, multifaceted and conflicting dimensions, shaping the development of a nation sanctioned by the West for attempting to balance relations with both the West and the East.

Belarus is a landlocked and predominantly flat country without natural borders, spanning an area of 207,600 square kilometres, which is slightly smaller than the United Kingdom. The total length of its borders is 3,306 km, shared with Latvia (171 km), Lithuania (680 km), Poland (605 km), Russia (959 km), and Ukraine (891 km). Around one-fifth of its territory, mainly in the south-eastern regions, remains affected by radioactive contamination from the 1986 nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine. Belarus also suffered catastrophic losses during World War II, with military operations claiming a quarter of its population and half of its economic resources. This further explains why Belarus is particularly sensitive and strongly opposed to resolving conflicts through military means.

Belarus's closest seaport is the Port of Klaipėda in Lithuania, roughly 560 km from Minsk. Known as one of the few ice-free ports in Northern Europe, it is also the second-largest EU port on the Baltic Sea in terms of cargo turnover. However, EU sanctions have significantly restricted Belarus's access to this vital port. In response, plans to build a multifunctional transhipment complex on the western shore of Russia's Kola Bay are set to create substantial economic synergies for Belarus. The new port infrastructure, located approximately 1,700 km from Minsk, is expected to be operational within two years. “We will have our port there in two years. We will load our cargo there, in our port,” said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in February 2022[2] .
 

Belarus as a key route between Russia and Kaliningrad


The Kaliningrad region was once directly connected to the Soviet Union. However, following the independence of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) after the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, Kaliningrad became geographically isolated from mainland Russia, losing its shared border with the country.

Today, Kaliningrad is a strategic Russian enclave located in the westernmost part of the country. It borders Poland to the south, Lithuania to the north and east, and is separated from Belarus to the west by the Suwałki land corridor —a strategic stretch approximately 100 km in length. Consequently, the only land connection between Russia and its enclave runs through Belarus.

The strategic importance of this Russian enclave is further amplified by its proximity to the capitals of several Western European nations compared to Russia. Cities like Warsaw, Berlin, and Kyiv are closer to Kaliningrad than Moscow, positioning it as a forward-operating Russian military base in Western Europe from a military standpoint.

For these reasons, Belarus holds significant strategic value for Russia, but its inevitable association with the Russian Federation has tarnished its reputation on the international stage. Most Western sanctions imposed on Belarus, particularly following Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, stem from its political and economic ties to Russia.

Observing the bloody war in Ukraine, where neither Russia nor Ukraine chose diplomacy and negotiations to avoid a devastating conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damages, one can see the wisdom of Belarusian leadership in striving to ensure Belarus would not share Ukraine’s fate. They preserved peace during the most difficult moments, despite facing extensive Western sanctions and even some retaliatory measures from Russia. Regardless, in 2014–2015, Belarus played an active mediating role by hosting negotiations and facilitating the Minsk Agreements (Minsk Protocol, Minsk I, Minsk II)[3].
 

Economic growth despite sanctions


Despite all sanctions and attempts to hinder its development, Belarus has achieved remarkable economic results. According to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Belarus's economy has performed well compared to some Eastern European nations, even with its unconventional approach to the post-Soviet economic transition. In 2022, Belarus recorded a significantly higher GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP): €14,520, compared to Ukraine’s €9,030 and Moldova’s €9,860. Belarus is also part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP)[4] initiative, along with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

From 1996 to 2010, Belarus enjoyed 15 consecutive years of economic growth at an average annual rate of nearly 7%, even avoiding a GDP contraction in 2009 despite the global recession. By all accounts, in 2023, Belarus's economy exceeded expectations, delivering results far better than most analysts had predicted. GDP grew by 2% in the first half of the year compared to 2022, with the recovery gaining further momentum. Annual GDP growth is projected to reach 3% or more. Although these results represent a recovery from a very low base caused by the effects of sanctions in 2022, the performance in 2023 highlights a remarkable level of resilience and adjustment to the new hostile economic environment and numerous sanctions.


Presidential elections in Belarus 2025

The House of Representatives of the Belarusian Parliament has scheduled the presidential elections for 26 January 2025. The previous elections, held on 9 August 2020, saw incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko secure 80.1% of the vote, while his challenger, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, received 10.12% and subsequently left Belarus.

In early November 2024, the Central Election Commission of Belarus registered seven initiative groups tasked with collecting signatures to support presidential candidacies. The deadline for submitting candidate registration documents was 1 November. On the same day, in addition to the current leader of the country, Alexander Lukashenko, the election commission approved the following nominations: Oleg Gaidukevich, leader of the Belarusian Liberal Democratic Party; Alexander Khizhnyak, president of the Republican Party of Labour and Justice; Olga Sustanova, head of the Youth Affairs Department of the Minsk City Executive Committee; independent candidate Anna Kanopatskaya, who previously participated in the 2020 presidential elections; Sergei Bobrikov, president of the Republican Council of the Belarusian Union of Officers; and Sergei Syrankov, leader of the Communist Party of Belarus.

The collection of voter signatures in support of presidential candidates began on 7 November and will continue until 6 December 2024. Following this, the relevant authorities will verify the validity of the signatures within ten days. The final registration of presidential candidates will take place between 22 and 31 December 2024. To be registered as a presidential candidate, a minimum of 100,000 signatures is required.
 

The 2020 presidential elections and the ensuing unrest


Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the presidency in Belarus since 1994, faced little to no serious competition in the five prior election cycles (1994, 2001, 2006, 2010, and 2015) as well as in the contested 2020 elections.

During the 2020 elections, Lukashenko faced growing public discontent, largely driven by his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which he dismissed as an insignificant threat.

From a Western perspective, his presidency has been marked by controversy, primarily due to the lack of political freedoms. While his critics describe him as authoritarian, his supporters argue that his policies have shielded the country from the worst effects of the transition to capitalism in the post-Soviet period.



 

Key features of Lukashenko's terms in office


In his first term, Alexander Lukashenko introduced rapid measures to stabilise the economy. These included doubling the minimum wage, imposing price controls, and rolling back several economic reforms implemented by his predecessors. His primary focus during this period was fulfilling his central campaign promise: to rescue the country from economic collapse. Lukashenko faced the significant challenge of revitalising a communist-era economy in a nation of approximately 10 million people. Belarus was heavily dependent on gas and electricity imports from Russia, purchased at subsidised rates. The lack of financial resources to pay for Russian imports made economic cooperation with Russia even more essential for Belarus.

This period, however, was marked by internal crises with the opposition, which accused Lukashenko of constitutional violations. Efforts by Russia to mediate failed to reconcile the differing positions of the president and parliament, prompting Lukashenko to call for a constitutional referendum granting him the authority to dissolve parliament, a move that was supported by an overwhelming majority of voters. 

Lukashenko was re-elected for a second term with 75.6% of the vote. The main priority of his second presidential term was the development of the country based on accelerated social and economic growth. As a result, Belarus became the first post-Soviet nation to overcome economic devastation.

In the 2006 elections, Alexander Lukashenko secured a third term with 83% of the vote. Over the next five years, he prioritised economic development aimed at improving citizens’ quality of life and combating bureaucracy, which contributed to Belarus becoming a more socially developed country overall.

With a slight decline in the percentage of supporters, Lukashenko secured a convincing victory in the 2010 elections, winning 79.6% of the vote. During this period, efforts toward modernisation and the adoption of advanced technical equipment enabled Belarus to mitigate the impact of global economic crises. This era also saw the launch of Eurasian integration projects and active involvement in managing regional crises.

Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected as president in 2015 with 83.5% of the vote. His agenda for the new phase focused on transitioning to development, digitalising the economy, nuclear energy, and implementing major investment projects across various sectors.

This set the stage for Lukashenko to win the 2020 elections with 80.1% of the vote. However, this victory came with the most significant political challenge of his career. The election results triggered widespread protests across multiple regions, backed by Western countries. Since then, the EU has refused to recognise Lukashenko as Belarus’s legitimate president.

Independent analysts believe that the current president of Belarus has achieved several accomplishments during his tenure, the most significant of which include:
  1. Promoting economic stability and improving citizens' quality of life.
  2. Expanding the country’s infrastructure through the construction of roads and bridges and the provision of public services.
  3. Developing key industrial sectors and strengthening the export sector.
  4. Achieving progress in the fields of science and technology.
  5. Implementing the agricultural towns project, one of Lukashenko’s major achievements in rural areas. Between 2005 and 2010, the government implemented a rural housing programme, establishing approximately 1,500 agricultural towns and constructing around 8,000 housing units.
 

The EU's double standards on Belarus and Egypt


An official statement from the EU's foreign affairs department declared that: “The so-called ‘inauguration’ on 23 September 2020 and the new mandate claimed by Alexander Lukashenko lacked democratic legitimacy.” This ‘inauguration’ directly contradicted the will of large sections of the Belarusian public, as demonstrated by massive and unprecedented peaceful protests, and served “merely to deepen the political crisis in Belarus.” According to an official statement from Brussels, the presidential elections held on 9 August 2020 “were neither free nor fair, and the EU does not recognise their falsified results.”[5]

On another continent, in Egypt, a similar situation unfolded when the current president, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, came to power through a military coup in 2013, overthrowing democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi, who later faced trial and died in court. The EU, however, took a markedly different approach. On 14 August 2013, Egyptian police, led by then-Defence Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, used lethal force to disperse two protest camps in Cairo. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), around 1,000 protesters were killed[6]. Observers have described el-Sisi's regime as authoritarian, with some elements of his governance considered even more brutal than that of former authoritarian leader President Hosni Mubarak, who ruled from 1981 to 2011.

The European Union has never condemned the events in Egypt and has instead provided generous financial aid to Cairo’s government for various reasons. On 29 June 2024, the EU and Egypt signed an agreement for an EU investment of up to €1 billion in Egypt as part of their strategic partnership. This investment marks the first tranche of a larger €7.4 billion package, announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during her visit to Cairo. The visit also included the signing of over 20 new agreements and memoranda of understanding valued at more than €40 billion[7].
 

What does Trump’s victory mean for Belarus-West relations?


The foreign policy of Donald Trump’s administration is based on the principle of “America First” in both trade and diplomacy, with a focus on turning “old enemies into friends.” In his 2017 inaugural address, Trump declared that under his leadership, the United States “will not seek to impose its way of life on anyone, but rather let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow.” He further emphasised that his administration would “seek friendship and goodwill with all nations of the world” and affirmed his belief “that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.”[8]

President Donald Trump’s response to the disputed elections in Belarus in 2020 was pragmatic. He stated that he would discuss the protests against Lukashenko with Russia “at the appropriate time.” During a press briefing at the White House, Trump observed that the Belarusian protests seemed peaceful and pointed out that the country’s experience with democracy was still short. Ten days after the elections, which protesters claimed were “rigged,” Trump remarked: “I like seeing democracy. It doesn’t seem like it’s too much democracy there in Belarus.”[9] He also urged European leaders to engage in dialogue on the situation in Belarus.

Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US presidential elections could lead to certain shifts in US-Belarus relations. However, based on past experience and the current geopolitical landscape, a dramatic shift is unlikely, at least until relations between the US and the Russian Federation normalise. From the US perspective, Belarus is likely to remain a Russian ally and within its sphere of influence. Instead of attempting to sever the Minsk-Moscow connection, as was the case during Trump’s previous term, efforts might now be directed towards containing Russian and Chinese influence in the region through engagement with Minsk.

Alexander Lukashenko supported Donald Trump in his bid for the White House against Kamala Harris, hoping for an improvement in bilateral relations following a change in US leadership. He promptly congratulated Trump on his victory, referring to him as a “powerhouse” and a “bulldozer,” and pledged to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize if he succeeded in ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Continuing his praise for the re-elected US president, Lukashenko expressed hope that Trump would not support Belarusian democratic forces, unlike Kamala Harris, and that he would end the war in Ukraine.

Lukashenko’s experience with the previous Trump administration was relatively positive. This included visits to Minsk by National Security Advisor John Bolton[10] on 29 August 2019 and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo[11]  on 1 February 2020. Their primary objective seemed to focus on ensuring Minsk’s genuine independence and strategic autonomy from Russia, as well as persuading Belarus to scale back its relations with China.

 

The revenge of geography


In his popular book “The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate”,[12] American author Robert D. Kaplan discusses the effects of geography and how it can foster prosperity in the absence of conflicts and threats from hostile neighbours. Conversely, he also illustrates how geography can become a scourge in the minds of nations, especially those enduring centuries of deeply rooted hostilities with neighbouring countries and peoples, perpetuating a climate of enmity.

The question arises: Does geography carry a curse that has historically shackled people and nations? The answer inevitably compels us to deeply and carefully examine, what is referred to as the “curse of geography”—where geographical realities themselves pose threats to certain countries, placing them in a constant state of conflict (military, diplomatic, or economic) with their geographical neighbours.

IFIMES


Footnotes:
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives."

[2] Reuters:  Lukashenko expects Russia to build a port for Belarus potash exports. Available at:  www.reuters.com/world/europe/lukashenko-expects-russia-build-port-belarus-potash-exports-2022-02-18/ 

[3] Minsk Agreements 2014-2015: were a series of international agreements which sought to end the Donbas war fought between armed Russian separatist groups and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with Russian regular forces playing a central part. Available at:   www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/b/140221.pdf 

[4] Eastern Partnership. Available at: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en 

[5] Belarus: Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the so-called inauguration of Aleksandr Lukashenko. Available at: www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/09/24/belarus-declaration-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-european-union-on-the-so-called-inauguration-of-aleksandr-lukashenko/ 

[6] Egypt: Rab’a Killings Likely Crimes against Humanity. Available at: www.hrw.org/news/2014/08/12/egypt-raba-killings-likely-crimes-against-humanity 

[7] The European Union’s promises to support the Egyptian economy were born out this week at a two-day Egypt-EU investment conference in Cairo. Available at: https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/526558.aspx

[8] The Inaugural Address. Available at: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address/ 

[9] Trump says will talk to Russia about Belarus, protests seem peaceful. Available at: www.reuters.com/article/world/trump-says-will-talk-to-russia-about-belarus-protests-seem-peaceful-idUSKCN25E1VG/ 

[10] National Security Advisor John Bolton visits Minsk. Available at: https://by.usembassy.gov/national-security-advisor-john-bolton-visits-minsk/ 

[11] Pompeo visits Belarus as Minsk's ties with Moscow fray. Available at: www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-usa-pompeo/pompeo-visits-belarus-as-minsks-ties-with-moscow-fray-idUSKBN1ZV3IO/ 

[12] Robert D. Kaplan The Revenge of Geography. Available at: https://books.google.si/books/about/The_Revenge_of_Geography.html?id=gUqfX_x9iNAC&redir_esc=y 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Commenti

Posta un commento

Post popolari in questo blog

The War in Ukraine as an inevitable manifestation of globalism vs. nationalism

Immagine
  A fter two years and four months since its outbreak, the War in Ukraine has turned out to be arguably the most significant event in contemporary international relations. Although its warfare is limited to the geographic areas centered on eastern and southeastern parts of the country, the War has involved global political and economic confrontation between Russia and the U.S.-led West. Evidently, with the BRICS and major Global South countries having taken non-U.S., if not anti-U.S., stances, the War is rapidly transforming the already severely declined U.S. hegemony into an embryonic multipolar world order . It is now of great importance to comprehend the essential nature of the War from a macro-historical perspective on modern and contemporary international relations. Such an approach will likely enable going beyond conventional current event commentary, policy analysis, and regular IR/comparative analysis. This study is particularly interested in the Jewish question as a va...
Continua a leggere

Russia preoccupata per la rivolta in Abcasia: il presidente Aslan Bzhania in fuga dalla capitale Sukhum dichiara di non volersi dimettere

Immagine
  Il presidente dell'Abcasia Aslan Bzhania Il presidente abcaso Alsan Bzhania ha lasciato venerdì la capitale della repubblica, Sukhum , respingendo la richiesta dell'opposizione di dimettersi e indire elezioni anticipate. L'opposizione in Abcasia ha interrotto i colloqui con i funzionari governativi e ha annunciato l'intenzione di rafforzare le proprie forze nel distretto governativo sequestrato. Secondo i primi resoconti, il presidente ha ritirato dal parlamento un disegno di legge per ratificare un accordo di investimento con la Russia, criticato dall'opposizione. Tuttavia, il suo servizio stampa ha smentito questa informazione sabato mattina. La posizione del Presidente - Rivolgendosi ai suoi sostenitori sullo sfondo dei disordini che hanno colpito il distretto governativo nella capitale Sukhum , il presidente abkhazo Aslan Bzhania ha rifiutato di dimettersi. "Resto in Abcasia e continuerò a lavorare", ha affermato. - Al momento, Bzhania si trova ne...
Continua a leggere

Geopolitics of the COP 29 Summit, in Baku

Immagine
Climate change has become one of the most pressing issues in global governance, shaping both the domestic policies of states and their international relations. Its multifaceted impacts transcend environmental degradation, influencing economic stability, political systems, migration patterns, and even military security.   Climate change requires an even deeper analyze from the perspective of its geopolitical importance . The upcoming COP 29 Conference in Baku, November 2024 , will be highly significant, especially in the context of how climate change is shaping geopolitical relations and regional stability. Azerbaijan’s role as host presents a unique opportunity for the country to influence global climate diplomacy, particularly because of its position at the crossroads of Europe , Asia , and the Middle Eas t, and as a key player in the energy market. Ambassador  Arben Cici   -  Professor of International Relations  Mediterranean University of Albania 1.  ...
Continua a leggere