Geopolitics of the COP 29 Summit, in Baku

Climate change has become one of the most pressing issues in global governance, shaping both the domestic policies of states and their international relations. Its multifaceted impacts transcend environmental degradation, influencing economic stability, political systems, migration patterns, and even military security. Climate change requires an even deeper analyze from the perspective of its geopolitical importance.

The upcoming COP 29 Conference in Baku, November 2024, will be highly significant, especially in the context of how climate change is shaping geopolitical relations and regional stability. Azerbaijan’s role as host presents a unique opportunity for the country to influence global climate diplomacy, particularly because of its position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and as a key player in the energy market.

Ambassador Arben Cici - Professor of International Relations Mediterranean University of Albania

1. Azerbaijan's Role in the Global Energy Market

Azerbaijan is an oil- and gas-rich nation, and like many fossil fuel-dependent countries, it faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with the global push toward decarbonization. As an exporter of oil and gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan plays a crucial role in Europe’s energy security, especially in light of the geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian energy supplies.

-Transition to Renewables: For Azerbaijan, COP 29 offers a platform to showcase its efforts to diversify its energy mix and invest in renewable energy. While oil and gas remain dominant, the government has taken steps toward developing wind and solar power projects, with plans to reach 30% renewable energy generation by 2030. Azerbaijan could use this opportunity to lead by example for other fossil fuel-dependent nations, particularly in Central Asia and the Caspian region.

-Energy Transition Diplomacy: Given its strategic energy role, Azerbaijan can act as a bridge between fossil fuel producers and renewable energy advocates. By emphasizing its own energy transition efforts, the country could position itself as a mediator in global discussions on balancing energy security with climate goals, encouraging more ambitious commitments from other fossil fuel-rich states.

2. Geopolitical Importance of the Region

The Caucasus, where Azerbaijan is located, is a region vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, increased desertification, and reduced water resources. These challenges not only affect domestic stability but also have regional security implications.

-Water Security: The Kura-Aras river basin, shared by Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia, is a critical resource under threat due to climate change. Decreasing water availability could exacerbate tensions in an already politically sensitive region. Hosting COP 29 allows Azerbaijan to highlight the need for regional cooperation on climate resilience and water resource management. This can foster new diplomatic engagements that transcend traditional geopolitical rivalries.

-Post-conflict Climate Diplomacy: The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh remains a source of regional tension. However, the climate crisis could serve as an entry point for broader collaboration, especially in areas like sustainable agriculture, water management, and renewable energy projects that benefit the entire region. Azerbaijan could leverage COP 29 to promote climate diplomacy as a tool for regional peace-building.

3. Azerbaijan’s Commitment to Climate Action

Azerbaijan has already committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2050 as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. While these targets are ambitious, COP 29 will be a crucial moment for Azerbaijan to demonstrate how it plans to meet these goals.

-Green Economy Transition: Azerbaijan can use the conference to highlight its initiatives aimed at greening its economy. By presenting concrete plans for sustainable urban development, reducing emissions in industries like petrochemicals, and expanding its renewable energy projects, Azerbaijan could serve as a model for other developing and fossil fuel-reliant countries.

4. Regional Cooperation and Multilateralism

COP 29 in Azerbaijan is not only important for the country itself but also for fostering greater regional cooperation. The Caspian Sea region is home to other significant energy producers, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as countries like Iran and Russia, which play important roles in both energy geopolitics and climate negotiations.

-Caspian Sea Environmental Protection: The Caspian Sea faces ecological degradation due to oil extraction and rising sea levels caused by climate change. COP 29 could serve as a platform for Azerbaijan to push for stronger regional agreements on environmental protection for the Caspian Sea, ensuring that economic activities, particularly in energy production, are balanced with the need for environmental sustainability.

5. Azerbaijan as a Bridge between Developed and Developing Nations

As a developing country with strong economic ties to both Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan is uniquely positioned to act as a bridge between the global North and South during COP 29. It can advocate for greater financial support for adaptation and mitigation efforts in vulnerable countries, especially those in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Middle East.

- Climate Finance and Technology Transfer: Azerbaijan can emphasize the need for more equitable climate finance, encouraging wealthier nations to deliver on their promises of financial aid to developing countries. It can also push for technology transfer agreements that enable nations to access the tools necessary for clean energy transitions.

6. Shaping Future COP Agendas

Finally, as the host of COP 29, Azerbaijan has the opportunity to shape the global climate agenda moving forward. By putting a spotlight on issues like energy security, regional cooperation, and the role of fossil fuel-dependent economies in the climate transition, Azerbaijan can influence future COP negotiations, especially for regions like the Caspian and Central Asia, which have often been underrepresented in global climate discussions.

In conclusion climate change is not just an environmental challenge but a geopolitical one, deeply intertwined with global power structures, resource distribution, and security dynamics. States must adopt both mitigation and adaptation strategies, strengthen multilateral cooperation, and consider the geopolitical implications of a warming world. By integrating climate policy into national and international security frameworks, states can work towards a more stable and resilient global order.

COP 29 in Azerbaijan is set to play a pivotal role in global climate diplomacy, especially given the country's strategic importance in the energy sector and its geographical location at the crossroads of major geopolitical regions. Azerbaijan can use this platform to advocate for a just transition for fossil fuel-dependent economies, promote regional cooperation on climate resilience, and push for more robust global climate commitments. This will not only help address the climate crisis but also enhance Azerbaijan’s standing in international relations and give a geopolitical impact by fostering regional stability.

RED

About the autor:

Ambassador Arben Pandi Cici was born in Korçë, Albania.

-Assoc. Prof. Dr. in Historical Sciences / International Relations and Diplomacy

-Pro-rector & Director of Doctoral School in of the Mediterranean University of Albania; Lecturer for Diplomacy and International Relations

-Executive Director of Albanian Diplomatic Forum.

-Lecturer and Trainer for Diplomatic Protocol and Etiquette.

-Author of the “Official Ceremonial of the Republic of Albania” and of many articles in the field of international relations of different scientific research and books.

-Chief of the Office of Foreign Policies and European Union Security and Coordination at the MFA of Albania (2010 – 2014)

-Director of State Protocol at the MFA of Albania.(1996-2000 & 2006-2007).

-Director of Protocol of the Albanian Assembly (2014 – 2015)

-Foreign Policy Adviser of the President of Albania (2007-2010 & 2020-2022)

-Director of Cabinet of the President of Albania (2017 – 2020)

-Director of the Cabinet of the Speaker of the Assembly of Albania (2015 –2016)

-Ambassador of Albania to the Kingdom of Denmark (2010-2014)

-Ambassador of Albania to the Republic of Croatia & non-resident Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina (2000 – 2006)

-Ambassador of Albania to the Russian Federation & non-resident Ambassador to Byelorussia, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (1992 – 1995)

Ambassador Cici was awarded with:

-The high Order “Duke Branimir with Ribbon” Order by the President of Croatia, Stjepan Mesiḉ.

-The “Medal of Gratitude” by the President of Albania, Alfred Moisiu.

-“International Special Award” from International Academie Diplomatique PAXET SALUS, “BOOKS for PEACE”, for the contribution and achievement in favor of Culture of Peace.

He is married and has three boys.

arben_cici@yahoo.com /arben.cici@umsh.edu.al / www.umsh.edu.al